0.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 Precaution Rain Wind 20 70 30 40 60 50 30 40 20 60 20 30 0 10 90 100 Precaution 64 73 159 104 Rain? 297 61 360 100 Wind? 470 131 536 172 Value 241 221 309 263 This is a standard influence diagram for your problem. There are two uncertainties around your decision: Rain and Wind. The decisions is completely under the decision maker's control and is influenced by the Rain and the Wind variables only indirectly: They both influence the total value (through both their probability and the valuation of the outsome: please look at the definition of the Value node, which is the only uitility node in the model) and the decision maker will pick such a decision (Precaution) that will yield the maximum possible expected value. 22 323 558 494