<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?>
<!-- This network was created in GeNIe Academic, which can be used for educational and research purposes only -->
<smile version="1.0" id="Unnamed" numsamples="1000" discsamples="10000">
	<nodes>
		<equation id="KuwaitProduction">
			<definition>KuwaitProduction=Normal(2.53004e+06,202659)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="UAEExports">
			<definition>UAEExports=Normal(2.40631e+06,188801)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="Saudiroduction">
			<parents>KuwaitProduction UAEExports</parents>
			<definition>Saudiroduction=2.09409*KuwaitProduction+0.825529*UAEExports+Normal(2.06901e+06,357358)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="x__UAEProduction">
			<parents>Saudiroduction KuwaitProduction</parents>
			<definition>x__UAEProduction=0.0717764*Saudiroduction+0.871352*KuwaitProduction+Normal(-205990,86426.5)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="IranProduction">
			<definition>IranProduction=Normal(3.78843e+06,369882)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="KazakhstanExports">
			<definition>KazakhstanExports=Normal(1.31604e+06,133666)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="QatarProduction">
			<parents>KazakhstanExports</parents>
			<definition>QatarProduction=1.81121*KazakhstanExports+Normal(-1.10156e+06,132445)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="USCrudeStocks">
			<parents>KazakhstanExports</parents>
			<definition>USCrudeStocks=0.531058*KazakhstanExports+Normal(1.05596e+06,99115.2)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="IraqProduction">
			<parents>USCrudeStocks</parents>
			<definition>IraqProduction=6.07527*USCrudeStocks+Normal(-8.03201e+06,451425)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="LibyaProduction">
			<definition>LibyaProduction=Normal(1.67987e+06,457666)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="OPECMonthlyAverage">
			<definition>OPECMonthlyAverage=Normal(70.7483,29.3537)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="WTIFuturesMonthlyClose">
			<parents>OPECMonthlyAverage</parents>
			<definition>WTIFuturesMonthlyClose=0.837994*OPECMonthlyAverage+Normal(11.37,5.52887)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="BrentMonthlyAverage">
			<parents>OPECMonthlyAverage</parents>
			<definition>BrentMonthlyAverage=1.00281*OPECMonthlyAverage+Normal(2.45222,2.93822)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="WTIGlobalMonthlyAverage">
			<parents>WTIFuturesMonthlyClose BrentMonthlyAverage</parents>
			<definition>WTIGlobalMonthlyAverage=0.756744*WTIFuturesMonthlyClose+0.20899*BrentMonthlyAverage+Normal(1.31564,2.8406)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="IranExports">
			<definition>IranExports=Normal(2.08068e+06,514140)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="KuwaitExports">
			<parents>UAEExports</parents>
			<definition>KuwaitExports=1.14863*UAEExports+Normal(-979042,67486.5)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="USOilRigCount_">
			<parents>IranProduction BrentMonthlyAverage IranExports KuwaitExports</parents>
			<definition>USOilRigCount_=-0.000395032*IranProduction+4.39085*BrentMonthlyAverage-0.000349229*IranExports+0.000436518*KuwaitExports+Normal(1745.87,142.644)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="USDExchange">
			<parents>WTIFuturesMonthlyClose</parents>
			<definition>USDExchange=-0.254895*WTIFuturesMonthlyClose+Normal(98.784,3.62478)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="SaudiExports">
			<parents>USOilRigCount_ UAEExports KuwaitExports</parents>
			<definition>SaudiExports=-281.331*USOilRigCount_-0.865081*UAEExports+2.43379*KuwaitExports+Normal(5.01954e+06,132039)</definition>
		</equation>
		<equation id="IraqExports">
			<parents>x__UAEProduction QatarProduction IraqProduction USCrudeStocks USDExchange</parents>
			<definition>IraqExports=0.702888*x__UAEProduction+1.44183*QatarProduction+0.208499*IraqProduction+0.140981*USCrudeStocks+33482.6*USDExchange+Normal(-5.04272e+06,169060)</definition>
		</equation>
	</nodes>
	<extensions>
		<genie version="1.0" app="GeNIe 2.1.1104.0 ACADEMIC" name="BNTest1" faultnameformat="nodestate">
			<node id="x__UAEProduction">
				<name>﻿UAEProduction</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>28 254 125 314</position>
			</node>
			<node id="IranProduction">
				<name>IranProduction</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>46 179 126 229</position>
			</node>
			<node id="Saudiroduction">
				<name>Saudiroduction</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>98 111 182 163</position>
			</node>
			<node id="KuwaitProduction">
				<name>KuwaitProduction</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>179 57 274 116</position>
			</node>
			<node id="QatarProduction">
				<name>QatarProduction</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>281 22 370 77</position>
			</node>
			<node id="IraqProduction">
				<name>IraqProduction</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>394 10 474 60</position>
			</node>
			<node id="LibyaProduction">
				<name>LibyaProduction</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>507 22 595 77</position>
			</node>
			<node id="WTIGlobalMonthlyAverage">
				<name>WTIGlobalMonthlyAverage</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>609 57 744 141</position>
			</node>
			<node id="WTIFuturesMonthlyClose">
				<name>WTIFuturesMonthlyClose</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>690 111 818 191</position>
			</node>
			<node id="BrentMonthlyAverage">
				<name>BrentMonthlyAverage</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>742 179 856 250</position>
			</node>
			<node id="OPECMonthlyAverage">
				<name>OPECMonthlyAverage</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>760 254 876 326</position>
			</node>
			<node id="USOilRigCount_">
				<name>USOilRigCount </name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>742 329 826 381</position>
			</node>
			<node id="USCrudeStocks">
				<name>USCrudeStocks</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>690 397 778 452</position>
			</node>
			<node id="USDExchange">
				<name>USDExchange</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>609 451 689 501</position>
			</node>
			<node id="SaudiExports">
				<name>SaudiExports</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>509 480 585 527</position>
			</node>
			<node id="UAEExports">
				<name>UAEExports</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>382 488 453 532</position>
			</node>
			<node id="IranExports">
				<name>IranExports</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>281 486 349 528</position>
			</node>
			<node id="KuwaitExports">
				<name>KuwaitExports</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>179 451 261 502</position>
			</node>
			<node id="IraqExports">
				<name>IraqExports</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>98 397 166 439</position>
			</node>
			<node id="KazakhstanExports">
				<name>KazakhstanExports</name>
				<interior color="e5f6f7" />
				<outline color="000080" />
				<font color="000000" name="Arial" size="7" />
				<position>46 329 150 394</position>
			</node>
		</genie>
	</extensions>
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