Decision analysis

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Decision analysis

Decision analysis is the art and practice of decision theory, an axiomatic theory prescribing how decisions should be made. Decision analysis is based on the premise that humans are reasonably capable of framing a decision problem, listing possible decision options, determining relevant factors, and quantifying uncertainty and preferences, but are rather weak in combining this information into a rational decision.

Decision analysis comes with a set of empirically tested tools for framing decisions, structuring decision problems, quantifying uncertainty and preferences, discovering those factors in a decision model that are critical for the decision, and computing the value of information that reduces uncertainty. Probability theory and decision theory supply tools for combining observations and optimizing decisions. While QGeNIe is under continuous development, it already implements a large set of these tools.

While decision analysis is based on two quantitative theories, probability theory and decision theory, its foundations are qualitative and based on axioms of rational choice. The purpose of decision analysis is to gain insight into a decision and not to obtain a recommendation. The users of QGeNIe will notice that this important premise is reflected in its functionality and, most importantly, its user interface.